Bet smarter, with an edge.
We turn book odds into fair win percentage and show your estimated edge with transparent calculations.
Information only; not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
- Fair win probabilities from de-vigged market lines
- Market-implied edge over best available odds
- Bet sizing matched to your bankroll and risk factor
- Transparent inputs, timestamps, and model updates
NFL EV Model Preview
Three worked examples for illustration (not live).
| Date | Game | Pick | Best Odds | Best Book |
Fair Probability
Estimated win % after removing the sportsbook margin (vig).
|
EV %
Expected value: compares fair win % to the offered price. Positive = better than fair.
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1 | Eagles @ Giants | Eagles to win (ML) | +120 | FanDuel | 46.8% | +3.0% |
| Sep 1 | Chiefs @ Ravens | Chiefs to win (ML) | −105 | Caesars | 52.2% | +1.9% |
| Sep 1 | Jets @ Bills | Jets to win (ML) | +145 | BetMGM | 41.8% | +2.4% |
Example only; not live data. Information only; not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Supported Sportsbooks
Available where online sports betting is legal.
Expected Value & Kelly Overview
How It Works →Where do I start?
Different sportsbooks post different prices for the same bet. That’s normal. Books adjust lines to manage risk, respond to sharp action, run promos, and compete for customers. Those small price differences change the break-even chance you need to come out ahead.
So what?
If you’ve picked a bet, your next job is simple: lock in the best available price. Our model screens supported sportsbooks and surfaces the most favorable odds available at that moment, so you’re starting from the strongest number every time.
What do odds mean?
In American odds, the sign tells you favorite vs underdog and the size hints at likelihood. As odds get more negative, the outcome is more likely; as they get more positive, it’s less likely. For reference, −140 corresponds to a break-even of about 58.3%, while +120 is about 45.5%.
So what?
Not every two-way bet is priced “fairly” because books build in a margin (vig) so the combined implied probabilities usually add up to over 100%. We remove the vig to estimate the market’s fair win % and a corresponding fair line, giving you a clearer baseline to compare against any book’s offered price.
What are fair probability and EV?
Every betting line can be turned into a likelihood. Because sportsbooks include a margin (“vig”), we remove that margin to estimate the market’s no-vig fair win probability, a clearer baseline than any book’s posted odds.
So what?
Sometimes a sportsbook posts a price that’s meaningfully different from the market’s fair number. That gap is your edge. We highlight these opportunities as positive expected value (EV%), so you can compare the offered price to the fair baseline and focus on bets that pay more than the market implies. Edges move with prices and aren’t guarantees, so it is up to you to use your own judgment and bankroll rules.
How do I know how much to bet?
We use Kelly logic. Kelly takes your fair win percentage and the offered price to suggest a fraction of your bankroll that maximizes long-run growth. The larger the edge, the larger the suggested fraction; if the edge is zero or negative, the suggested stake is $0.
So what?
If you stake the same unit on every +EV bet, you over-bet small edges and under-bet strong ones. Kelly sizing ties stake to edge and win probability, helping you stay consistent. It’s a guideline, not a guarantee, so use a Kelly factor that fits your risk tolerance and never risk money you can’t afford to lose.
Built for every betting style
Pick your style, set your thresholds, and let the edges work for you.
Line Shopper
Already have a favorite? Find the best-value sportsbook odds for your bet.
Start here: EV% ≥ 1.0–1.5 · Kelly 0.5
Data-Driven Bettor
De-vig the market, turn prices into fair probabilities, and integrate your model with ours.
Start here: EV% ≥ 1.5–2.0 · Kelly 0.75
Bankroll-Conscious
Control variance with higher EV floors and lower Kelly stakes.
Start here: EV% ≥ 2–3 · Kelly 0.25
High-Conviction Backer
Maximize high-edge opportunities and filter out low-probability bets.
Start here: EV% ≥ 4–5 · Kelly 0.75–1.0
Weekend Warriors
Filter by edge and lock in your favorites, every Sunday.
Start here: EV% ≥ 2 · Kelly 0.25–0.75
Just Learning
Learn the workflow—see fair win probabilities, filter by edge, and start with small, consistent stakes.
Start here: EV% ≥ 2–3 · Kelly 0.25–0.5
What Fair Value Betting can do for you
Sportsbook screening & line shopping
Screen multiple books and surface the best line for each matchup.
De-vig market odds
Remove the bookmaker’s margin to reveal the market’s underlying odds.
Fair probabilities
Convert no-vig prices into consistent implied win probabilities.
EV% filtering
Calculate edge vs. best price, rank plays, and set your own EV% threshold.
Adjustable Kelly sizing
Right-size stakes to your risk with user-set bankroll and Kelly factor.
Clarity & transparency
See timestamps, inputs, and updates alongside results.