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About Fair Value Betting

Why Fair Value Betting

We convert market prices into fair probabilities, quantify edge, and size positions—so you can bet with discipline instead of guesswork.

Launch Model Explore Plans

Information only; not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

  • Promise: We remove the vig to estimate fair win probabilities, compare them to the best available price to compute EV, and suggest Kelly stakes sized to your bankroll and risk. You control filters, Kelly factor, and books so the model fits your style.
  • Transparency: Every table shows pull time, books and prices used, implied probabilities, EV math, Kelly fraction, inputs, and the current model version. We also show data sources, update notes, and any assumptions so you can trace each number from price to recommendation.

About the Founder

Founder note

Hi, I’m Jalen Lee. I built Fair Value Betting to bring disciplined, transparent, value-driven betting to everyday bettors. With a background in finance and data analytics, I’m combining a love of sports with the rigor of modeling and visualization to help people focus on fair value, not hype.

What we stand for

Fair Value Betting stands for clarity, discipline, and transparency. We present prices and probabilities in a consistent, comparable format so you can judge value with confidence, we focus on process over hype and plain language about risk, we document inputs, updates, and assumptions, and we encourage responsible bankroll management so decisions stay consistent over time.

No locks. Just process. — Jalen

What’s coming next

Rollout order: CFB → NBA → CBB

Last updated: Aug 2025

CFB

Status
In Build
Launch scope
  • Expected value model
  • Spreads & totals (beta)
  • Futures (beta)
Target window
Fall 2025

NBA

Status
Planned
Launch scope
  • Expected value model
  • Spreads & totals (beta)
  • Futures (beta)
Target window
Winter 2025

CBB

Status
Planned
Launch scope
  • Expected value model
  • Spreads & totals (beta)
  • KenPom integration (beta)
Target window
Winter 2025

Roadmap is directional and may change based on data quality and user feedback.