NFL • Expected Value Model

NFL Expected Value Model

De-vig market lines to estimate fair win probabilities, measure EV% versus the best available price, and size positions to your bankroll and risk tolerance.

Launch NFL EV Model Explore Plans & Pricing

Information only; not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

  • Fair win probabilities from de-vigged market lines
  • Market-implied edge over best available odds
  • Bet sizing matched to your bankroll and risk factor
  • Transparent inputs, timestamps, and model updates

What’s included

Sportsbook screening & line shopping

Scan multiple books and surface the best price for each matchup.

De-vig probabilities

Remove the margin to estimate fair win probabilities.

EV% ranking & filters

Rank plays by edge and set your own EV thresholds.

Adjustable Kelly sizing

Right-size stakes to risk with a user-set Kelly factor.

Timestamps & inputs

See when data was pulled, which books/prices, and model version.

Clean, explainable outputs

No black boxes—math you can audit and repeat.

What’s coming next

Rollout order: CFB → NBA → CBB

Last updated: Aug 2025

CFB

Status
In Build
Launch scope
  • Expected value model
  • Spreads & totals (beta)
  • Futures (beta)
Target window
Fall 2025

NBA

Status
Planned
Launch scope
  • Expected value model
  • Spreads & totals (beta)
  • Futures (beta)
Target window
Winter 2025

CBB

Status
Planned
Launch scope
  • Expected value model
  • Spread & total (beta)
  • KenPom integration (beta)
Target window
Winter 2025

Roadmap is directional and may change based on data quality and user feedback.